To Solve the Literacy Crisis, We Must Aim High
By: Kirsty Newman and Anisha Mansingh
A new paper from the Center for Global Development (CGD) examines how the sector measures impact in foundational literacy programs. Drawing on data from nearly 200 studies, the paper argues that standardized effect sizes in early-grade reading research are driven as much by differences in test design and sample composition as by actual learning gains. They urge researchers to report raw effects alongside standardized ones to show what children actually learn.
There are many important takeaways (my colleague Matthew Jukes shared his reflections here), but one finding stood out to me: the sheer variation in impact between literacy programs.
The authors collated 94 measurements of impact where both effect size and gains in words per minute scores were reported. The range is staggering.
One possible explanation is the variation in program length—the programs considered range from a few months to four years in duration. But even if you look at words per minute gained per year of intervention, the range is still huge: from -2.5 (i.e. children read 2.5 fewer words per minute after the intervention) to 22.5. The median increase in words per minute per year was just 1.5.
So, what does this huge variation mean for children learning to read, and for a sector that relies on these numbers to decide which programs get funded? Put bluntly, most literacy programs barely move the needle in getting children to learn.
Put bluntly, most literacy programs barely move the needle in getting children to learn.
Most Children are Barely Learning to Read
The majority of early-grade learners in sub-Saharan Africa start at close to zero reading skills, so oral reading fluency scores cluster near the bottom of the scale. Apply the median word per minute per year gain to a child who is unable to read a single word: they would progress from being able to read zero words per minute to just 1.5 words per minute, or roughly 1 word every 40 seconds.
That is nowhere near enough.
Research shows that children need a minimum reading speed before they can begin to comprehend text. At Luminos, we treat 30 correct words per minute as the threshold for an “emerging reader.” A gain of 1.5 words per minute does not come close.
And that assumes gains are spread evenly among a given sample. They rarely are. A 1.5 words per minute average almost always means most children stay stuck at zero while a small few make real progress. The CGD paper shows this starkly. In a study from Uganda, nearly every child in the control group read zero words per minute. After the one-year program, the treatment group’s average rose by 2 words per minute, but as the chart below shows, most children still could not read a single word. Only a handful of children made real gains.
Oral Reading Fluency Rates by Treatment Group in Uganda (CGD Research)
Source: Rossiter, Jack, David K. Evans, Susannah Hares, and Catherine Henny. 2026. The Illusion of Comparability Among Standardised Effect Sizes: Why Education Evaluations Should Report Raw Effects. Center for Global Development. https://www.cgdev.org/publication/illusion-comparability-among-standardised-effect-sizes-why-education-evaluations-should
Meaningful Gains are Rare, but Possible
Education is a basic human right. Every child deserves to be able to read for meaning. Not every literacy program will get them all the way there, but every program should aim to ensure children achieve meaningful gains in pre-literacy or literacy skills.
An average gain of a few words per minute will not transform children’s lives, nor will it set them up for success in the classroom. Yet, across the measurements highlighted in the paper, only 1 in 8 demonstrates gains of even 10 words per minute per year.
The good news? The IDinsight randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the Luminos program in Liberia ranks in the top 5 percent of the CGD paper measurements in terms of word per minute gains per year. The RCT found that Luminos students learn a huge amount in just one school year, reading four times as many words as children in control communities.
It is also worth noting that the data points from Luminos Liberia are amongst the only ones corresponding to an ongoing program. Almost all other data points come from time-limited donor-funded projects, many of which were funded by USAID. Aside from Luminos’ ongoing implementations, there is only one other ongoing project, located in Brazil.
Education is a basic human right.
Every child deserves to be able to read for meaning.
Not every literacy program will get them all the way there, but every program should aim to ensure children achieve meaningful gains in pre-literacy or literacy skills.
As part of our commitment to data-driven decision-making, Luminos conducts annual independently administered evaluations across our programs in Ethiopia, Ghana, and Liberia. These reveal that Luminos programs consistently improve children’s oral reading fluency by 22-47 words per minute in just 10 months, working with some of the world’s most disadvantaged children.
Note that Luminos data comes from pre/post evaluations while the other data is from experimental evaluations. Sources: Luminos Fund: Liberia, Ethiopia, Ghana. Rossiter, Jack, David K. Evans, Susannah Hares, and Catherine Henny. 2026. “Replication Data for: The Illusion of Comparability Among Standardised Effect Sizes: Why Education Evaluations Should Report Raw Effects.” Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/TWMP8S.
Luminos’ experience shows that meaningful learning gains are possible, repeatable, and scalable—and that the field can and should aim high. Transformation is possible, but only if we are ambitious enough to demand it for the next generation.
Luminos student Fayze in her classroom in Ethiopia. Fayze attended school for the first time through the Luminos program. “I love school! It gives me joy that I’m learning now — and that I know my letters and I’m able to read!” says Fazyze. Fayze has rapidly gain confidence through the Luminos program and now readily speaks up and demonstrates in front of the class. In the future, Fayze hopes to expand her reading and writing skills to English and dreams of becoming a doctor. (Photo by Mara Chan/Luminos Fund)
Kirsty Newman Vice President of Programs at the Luminos Fund where she oversees the global programs team to support joyful, foundational learning for children at the margins. Before joining Luminos, Kirsty held senior leadership roles in various bilateral, multi-lateral, and non-governmental development organizations. Kirsty trained initially as a scientist (she has a PhD in Microbiology and Immunology) and has worked throughout her career to enable local research and evidence networks to support decision-making. She has a particular passion for equality, diversity, and inclusion in the workplace and in the world! She believes that all children deserve the chance to become lifelong learners – and that a vital first step towards achieving this is providing every child with the opportunity to develop foundational skills in literacy and numeracy.
Anisha Mansingh is currently pursuing a MA in Development Practice at the Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley, with a focus on mixed-methods research, impact evaluation, and development economics. Prior to graduate school, she spent four years working in India across education, skill development, and tech-for-good, with experience spanning strategy, project management, and partnerships. She aspires to build a career in international development, designing and implementing evidence-based programs that expand access to education and help children achieve meaningful learning outcomes.
Luminos Fund supported the independent research paper discussed in this blog.
